31 May 2025
Joint statement with the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand
The promising decline in Aotearoa New Zealand’s smoking rates has halted for the first time in a decade, raising serious doubts about the nation's ability to achieve its ambitious Smokefree 2025 goal.
This stagnation follows closely on the heels of the 2024 repeal of groundbreaking smokefree legislation, prompting urgent calls for re-evaluation and renewed action on World No Tobacco Day.
The latest New Zealand Health Survey (2023/24) data indicates that for the first time in a decade, the daily smoking rate has plateaued at 6.9%, a negligible change from the previous year's 6.8%.
This marks a sharp deviation from the consistent downward trend observed since 2011/12, when rates were at 16.4%. The number of daily smokers has even seen a slight increase.
"This data is a stark warning that New Zealand's progress in reducing smoking is faltering," says Vincent So, CEO of peak respiratory body, the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand (TSANZ).
"Our organisation operates with the mandate of helping to protect New Zealander’s lungs. When effective strategies are abandoned, we risk losing the momentum gained through years of hard work and investment.
“It's imperative that we re-examine the current policy settings and ensure that the health and well-being of all New Zealanders remain a top priority."
“A few years ago, Aotearoa New Zealand’s approach was world-leading. Now, government policy is setting new generations up for smoking addiction and life-threatening health issues,” says Dr Hamish McCay, Aotearoa New Zealand President of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians.
“The repeal of the previous government’s tobacco laws went against all the evidence and all the health advice. We are losing the profound health benefits these laws offered for people of all ages and future generations, particularly for our Māori communities.”
The repealed legislation, enacted in December 2022, included world-leading measures such as de-nicotinisation of tobacco, a drastic reduction in tobacco retailers, and a "smokefree generation" policy.
Modelling studies [1] had robustly demonstrated that these policies would have significantly accelerated the decline in smoking rates, particularly for Māori, who bear a disproportionate burden of smoking-related harm.
The study projected that such measures could have led to the Smokefree 2025 goal being met for Māori by 2026-2027.
"The evidence was clear: the repealed Smokefree legislation was designed to deliver rapid and equitable reductions in smoking prevalence," states Dr Paul Dawkins, TSANZ’s New Zealand President.
"To see the overall smoking rate reduction showing evidence of beginning to stall so soon after these crucial public health protections were dismantled is deeply troubling.
“We are witnessing the very real consequences of political decisions that disregard scientific consensus and the long-term health of our communities. The Smokefree 2025 goal, which is now only months away, is now in serious jeopardy."
Public health experts, including world renowned members of the TSANZ and RACP continue to emphasise that without a robust, multi-faceted approach, including regulatory measures that address the addictiveness and accessibility of tobacco, New Zealand is unlikely to achieve its Smokefree 2025 aspirations. The current strategy, which relies heavily on cessation support, may not be enough to reverse this alarming trend.
[1] Ait Ouakrim et al. (2023) study published in Tobacco Control